The climate crisis in 2024: signs of hope but challenges remain

For the first time since the start of the industrial era, global energy-related CO2 emissions may begin to decline. But the world is still far from reaching the Paris climate goals

2024 may be the year global CO2 emissions from energy peaked-the beginning of what hopefully will be a trend in a continued and downward slope. This is the principal takeaway from the recent Energy Transition Outlook by DNV, an independent report with an annual snapshot of the global energy transition.

For the first time since the Industrial Revolution, the world appears to be on the cusp of a sustained downward trend in emissions, with near-half reductions by 2050“, says the report. Not quite time to throw confetti.

A historic milestone (with caveats)

If DNV’s projections are right, the peak in emissions would represent a historically significant inflection point in the struggle against climate change. The shift has been a long time coming, but it’s driven mostly by the rapid growth of solar power and electric vehicles, both abetted by the falling cost of battery storage.

Solar power and batteries are leading the energy transition, and it’s happening even quicker than we previously forecast,” said Remi Eriksen, Group President & CEO of DNV.

China keeps nosing ahead in solar race

This leads the solar power surge, with China accounting for an astonishing 58% of global installations in 2023. However, China remains the world’s top coal consumer despite making large investments in renewables to try and cut its dependence on fossil fuels.

The “hard-to-abate” sectors challenge

But not all sectors move at the same pace. DNV underlines an important fact: while electrification races ahead in several sectors, including transport and power supply, others-some of which have been described as “hard-to-abate”-face major challenges.

These cover aviation, shipping, and heavy industry-for which decarbonization is more intricate and depends greatly on green hydrogen and CCS, among emerging technologies.

The looming Paris agreement targets

The encouraging data notwithstanding, the world remains off kilter on targets set by the Paris Agreement on climate change. According to DNV, the global temperature increase may soar to 4°F (2.2°C) by the end of the century, well above the “safe” threshold of 2.7°F (1.5°C) that scientists recommend.

A call to action

It is concerning,” Eriksen warns, “that even the projected decrease in emissions is still way off the reduction curve needed to meet targets under the Paris Agreement. What’s more, hard-to-electrify sectors need fresh support from governments.

The message, therefore, is clear: the peak in emissions is a good omen-but insufficient. The low-carbon future course will be traveled only by quickened pace and at coordinated, global effort for energy transition. The time is running out, and the challenge is daunting; yet, the goal is still within reach.