Germana Carillo Sea level rise caused by climate change will overwhelm many of the world's largest oil ports, new analysis says
More than ten of the world’s busiest supertanker ports would face submerging or serious devastation with a sea-level rise as small as 3.3 feet.
This dismal forecast is an outcome of an International Cryosphere Climate Initiative, ICCI, study that precisely identifies 13 key facilities with very high exposure that are highly critical to transportation of oil around the globe.
These include two Saudi Arabian ports-Ras Tanura and Yanbu-operated by state-controlled oil major Aramco, accounting for 98% of the country’s crude exports. In the United States, Houston and Galveston stand out as hotspots for the world’s largest oil exporter, while vital nodes in the United Arab Emirates, China, Singapore, and the Netherlands also make appearances.
@The Guardian
Sea level rise: a predestined menace
New research by the ICCI warns that at least a 3.3-feet rise in sea levels is already inevitable over the coming century but could happen as early as 2070 if the ice sheets collapse and emissions don’t decrease. An apocalyptic rise of almost 10 feet might then be unavoidable in just one or two millennia, with rates starting as early as 2100.
Sea level rise is already giving many regions of the world much hardship. Higher storm surges increase the chances of coastal flooding; saltwater intrusion into coastal lands corrodes foundations and infrastructure.
Accordingly, researchers pointed out, strongly reduced emissions would mean not only a slowing rate of sea level rise but also its ultimate height.
“It’s ironic that these oil ports, located less than 3.3 feet above current sea levels, must now contend with the consequences of continued fossil fuel use,” said Pam Pearson, ICCI’s director.
Long-term crisis, immediate consequences
Most would think sea level rise is probably the most profound long-term consequence of the climate crisis-it literally changes the map, from New York to Shanghai-and it has often been subject to a lack of political concern and corporate policy.
Fossil fuel addiction: a questionable gamble
The report is an extension of a May study that showed 12 of 15 of the busiest oil ports are at risk from sea level rise. Using sea level rise maps from Climate Central and Google Maps, researchers were able to show that a 3.3-foot rise would damage docks, storage facilities, refineries and other infrastructure.
The latest analysis adds Yanbu, the second Saudi facility that was found to be highly vulnerable from a 3.3-foot rise. Using Bloomberg’s data for oil exports, the team was able to estimate the value of oil moved through these facilities. In 2023, for instance, Ras Tanura and Yanbu accounted for some $214 billion in exports.
Taken together, the 13 ports represented about 20% of all global oil exports in 2023.
This analysis underlines the fact that, in a warming world, a reliance on fossil fuels is a route to disaster-not energy security-said Murray Worthy of Zero Carbon Analytics. Countries must choose between clinging to fossil fuels, risking supply disruptions as rising seas inundate ports, or transitioning to secure and sustainable domestic renewable energy.
