Emissions gap report 2024: can we still meet the 1.5°c target?

It remains technically possible to undertake a path that truly leads to limiting the global temperature rise to within 1.5 °C, but at the moment the Paris Agreement is moving away. The new UNEP report on greenhouse gas emissions is frightening, but does not totally destroy hopes. But a lot needs to be done, and very soon

“No more hot air… please!” That’s the blunt title of UNEP’s new “Emissions Gap Report 2024,” highlighting the rising climate crisis. Far from an impending disaster, climate change is here and now. The extreme weather events are happening across the globe, as disasters like the recent flooding in Valencia brought the crisis into sharp focus.

This report is the 15th in an annual series from UNEP that draws together the latest data from leading climate scientists to forecast future trends in greenhouse gas emissions and sets out solutions toward meeting the challenge of global warming. There is some hope still-all might not be lost-but much action is needed, and urgently.

The road to 1.5°F is narrowing

It says that countries need to substantially increase ambition and implement decisive action to hold the 1.5°F target of the Paris Agreement within reach, or this crucial threshold will soon slip beyond reach.

Unfortunately, all this is news not very much out of the way.

What the UNEP 2024 report adds

Beyond that urgency, the 2024 UNEP report analyzes greenhouse gas reductions needed in the next round of NDCs-national targets to be presented by every country under the Paris Agreement to reduce emissions. These targets are due early in 2025 ahead of COP30 and must reflect a stronger commitment if they are to have real meaning.

In that report, cuts of 42% by 2030 and of 57% by 2035 are called for to meet the target of 1.5°C.

If these new NDCs are not strengthened and immediate action is not taken, the world is headed toward a temperature increase this century in the range of 2.6 to 3.1°C. “Such an outcome would have devastating effects on people, the planet, and economies“, the report states.

Much to do, and quickly

Though technically this pathway remains open, UNEP says, action to date is insufficient. As the report by UNEP underlines, immediate action must be taken to speed up renewable energy deployment-in particular, solar and wind energy-and to end deforestation.

This will require ambitious NDCs underpinned by comprehensive government efforts that maximize socioeconomic and environmental co-benefits. It is now time for increased international cooperation, reform of global financial structures, the proactive private sector, and at least a sixfold increase in investments toward climate mitigation.

The G20 nations have a special responsibility and should be at the forefront-particularly those that are the most emitting.

We are in the climate crisis; it is now time to upscale. The future of our planet is hanging by a thread. No more time is left to delay action, yet, with COP29 looming, skepticism endures over whether meaningful measures will be taken, not least with Azerbaijan, this year’s host, considering significant expansions in fossil fuel production over the next decade.

The document is available here.

Sources: UNEP / UNEP/Youtube